Regarding the impact of changes in the US dollar index on gold prices that Caiyuan netizens worry about, Peng Changkun analyzed that the Federal Reserve has given a standard for the withdrawal of quantitative easing, but did not say that it will definitely withdraw in 2013, not to mention that even if it withdraws, it will not directly lead to market ischemiWhen will the next precious metals market open?a. , Because global central banks have opened up money printing machines in recent years, the market is not lacking in liquidity. The recent rise in the US dollar index is more sought after by the market as a safe-haven currency. However, from the history of currency development, no currency can dominate the world for a long time, and it is impossible to maintain an appreciation trend. Gold has its own value, and no matter how sharply it falls, it will not fall below its mining cost. In addition, the factors supporting the trend of gold prices are not only the quantitative easing policy in the United States, but also geopolitical frictions, financial crises, and crude oil prices will all have an impact on gold prices.
At the moment when the U.S. debt crisis eased temporarily, the price of gold remained high during the session, which seems logically unreasonable. Jiang Shu, a senior analyst at the Industrial Bank’s Capital Operations Center, pointed out that, in fact, the panic still exists in the market, which can explain why the price of gold can move in the same direction as the US dollar and reach new highs.
According to the "Gold Demand Trend Report" released by the World Gold Council yesterday, the total global gold demand in the third quarter of 2012 was 1084.6 metric tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11%, mainly due to the significant decline in the demand for gold bars and coins. Among them, the demand for gold continued to slow down in the third quarter, from 191.2 metric tons in the same period last year to 176.8 metric tons, a decrease of 8%.
Overnight in the U.S. market, the generally better-than-expected U.S. economic data triggered concerns about the Fed’s recent reduction in the scale of asset purchases, and precious metals recorded a significant decline. Among them, spot gold once fell from an intraday high of $1254.78 to $1235.70. As of the close of the US market, spot gold was quoted at US$1,237.30, down US$5 or 0.4% throughout the day. Spot silver followed the trend of gold and recorded a decline for the second consecutive trading day, during which it once touched an important support near 19.60. As of the close, at 19.65 US dollars, down 0.2 US dollars, or 1%. At 21:30 pm Beijing time yesterday (27th), the employment data released by the US Department of Labor showed that the number of initial jobless claims dropped to 316,000 last week, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous value, a record low in the past two months. Below the expected level of 330,000. At 22:45, the data released by the Chicago Chapter of the American Institute of Supply Management showed that the PMI of the Chicago area in November was 63, a decrease from the previous value of 65.9, but still higher than the expected value of 60. The data mainly measures the economic health of the manufacturing industry in the Chicago area. A value greater than 50 indicates that the manufacturing industry is in an expansion phase and the dollar is bullish; if it is less than 50, it indicates that the manufacturing industry is shrinking and the dollar is bearish. At 23 o'clock, the final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index announced by the University of Michigan in November was 75.1, higher than the expected value of 73 and the previous value of 72. The index is a measure of the level of consumer confidence in economic activities. It is a leading indicator because it can predict consumer spending, which is a major part of overall economic activity. If the indicator is higher than expected, the dollar will be boosted. On the contrary, if the indicator is lower than expected, the dollar will be suppressed. Tomorrow, the United States will enter the 4-day holiday of Thanksgiving, during which the US market will be closed and the release of economic data will be suspended. But the heavyweight data of the European market is frequent in the next two days. This afternoon, the largest economy in the Eurozone will release job market data. The Eurozone will then release the final value of the consumer confidence index. In the evening, Germany will also release relevant information on price indices. On Friday, the top four EU economies will announce a series of important data, including the actual monthly retail sales rate in Germany, the French producer price index, the Italian unemployment rate, the UK consumer credit, the initial value of the annual rate of the Eurozone consumer price index and the reserve. The Eurozone unemployment rate in October is of concern. If the overall data reflects well, it will prompt the market to ease concerns about Europe’s re-entry, boost the trend of the euro, and at the same time suppress the dollar, which will benefit precious metals. Conversely, if the data generally falls short of expectations, for precious metals, it may be affected by the weak euro and continue to fall. Operationally, market fluctuations in the next two days will be mainly concentrated in the Asian and European markets. Precious metals rebounded during the US session on Monday, but the continuity was insufficient, coupled with the overall bearish sentiment in the market remained strong, and recorded declines in the following two trading days. Gold once tried the main resistance at $1260, but was pressured below 1240 by the short force without hesitation. Spot silver was also keen to challenge the resistance of US$20.30, but it ended in failure due to the fall of gold. In the future, the precious metals will still undergo weak shocks, and the following behavior will be the main players. It is recommended that investors still focus on the trading idea of short rallies.
On that day, the price of silver futures for March delivery fell by 1.427 US dollars to close at 32.355 US dollars per ounce, a decrease of 4.22%. The price of platinum futures for January delivery fell 33.6 US dollars to close at 1612.8 US dollars per ounce, a decrease of 2.04%.
On the last trading day (11th), due to thWhen will the next precious metals market open?e continued high volatility of US stocks and the increased market expectations of the Fed's early interest rate hike, the trend of precious metals such as gold was weak, and the fourth consecutive trading day fell. Data information shows that as of the close, London Gold fell by US$9.2 to US$1239.85, the lowest closing price since January 22, with a decrease of 0.74%; spot silver reported closing at US$18.69, a decrease of US$0.24, a decrease of 1.27%, in June The lost land recovered has been lost.
They know better than anyone that hedge funds need to sell gold to raise funds to make up for foreign exchange investment losses. In Zhang Gang's view, speculative short selling of gold is their biggest source of profit. The price of COMEX gold futures in December has fallen by more than 4.5% in the past 48 hours.
Societe Generale (Societe Generale) on Monday (June 17) lowered its expectations for international spot gold prices, and expected the price of gold to fall to US$1,200 per ounce at the end of the year. The bank pointed out that the reason for lowering its gold price expectations was the international gold price not long ago. The price drop exceeded its previous forecast.
However, judging from the recent disk market, gold is facing a process of digestion after continuous sharp declines. Many industry insiders have judged that in the short term, gold will enter a volatile market. According to the view from the Mid-term Research Institute, technically speaking, the downward channel for gold has been opened, and the downward trend is still possible after short-term shocks. Of course, if Greece’s expenditure saving plan fails to pass, the European debt will deteriorate further, and the price of gold will certainly stop falling and rebound under the influence of risk aversion. In terms of operation, we recommend investors to wait and see for the time being.